Friday, June 11, 2010

The Turnaround

Delmon Young came into this year as an underachieving former first round pick. Let's take a quick look at his numbers from the last two years to reinforce this point.

YearBB%K%ISOOPS+UZRWAR
20085.618.3.115100-19.4-0.7
20092.923.3.14291-14.3-1.1

In 2008 Delmon Young was an average hitter for his position and a below average fielder, this resulted in an overall negative value as seen in his WAR, wins above replacement. In 2009 he got worse in almost every hitting category, taking less walks and striking out more, trend lines that you don't want to see from any player, much less one as young as Delmon.

His OPS+, a comparison between him and everyone else at his position, was well below average. His fielding and power numbers improved slightly but not enough to offset the regression in his plate discipline and as a result his WAR in '09 was worse than in '08. At the end of the year Delmon Young looked like a failed prospect whose skill was deteriorating before our eyes.

When the Twins signed Jim Thome many a blogger suggested that the Twins best lineup would consist of Jason Kubel in left and Thome at DH, with Delmon on the bench.

So, what has Delmon Young done so far this year?

YearBB%K%ISOOPS+UZRWAR
20106.612.3.1961120.40.8

That's quite the dramatic turnaround, going from 9 points below average in OPS+ in '09 to 12 points above average so far this year. And it's not just one or two categories that he's improved, it is across the board. His walk rate is more than twice what it was last year and even though his strikeout rate is way down, his power numbers are up.

The most striking improvement though has been in his fielding. While the last two years Delmon Young was among one of the worst fielders at his position, this year he is average. All of this has resulted in him posting a .8 WAR so far, with half of the season still to play. Meaning that for the first time since he's been in a Twins uniform Delmon Young is providing positive value to his team.

A lot of ink was used in spring training talking about Delmon's weight loss in the off season and while I never try to take "he's in the best shape of his life" spring training stories seriously, it appears that it has made quite the difference in Delmon's ability to get to balls in the outfield, something he used to struggle mightily with.

So how do we know that this isn't just a first half fluke and his numbers will regress to normal as the season goes on? Well, take a look at Delmon's BABIP through the years.

YearBABIP
20070.338
20080.338
20090.338
20100.276

What you can see by the above chart is that Delmon has been very unlucky so far this year; his balls in play are falling for hits at an unsustainably low rate. As the season goes on his BABIP to regress towards his career average, when that happens 2010 will easily be Delmon Young's best year in the majors. It may not be enough to make the trade that brought him here approach parity, but it will certainly pull it out from the realm of one of the worst Twins trade's evah.

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