Deadline day

UPDATE: The deadline passed and the Twins didn't make a deal. Not really a surprise. They still might get something done in a waiver deal for a reliever or an infielder, but I don't think they will, that's their style.

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Today is baseball's non-waiver trading deadline and I'll continue to update this post as the day goes on, for now here are the most current rumors:

• Bob Dutton says the Twins are looking for a second baseman, as Casilla is likely done for the year, names mentioned were Mark Grudzielanek, Brian Roberts and Rich Aurilia.
  
• A name that continues to come up in the different rumors out there is Boof Bonser.

As things are right now the most I would expect the Twins to do is make a minor trade for an average to replacement level infielder.

WTF? Sox get Griffey

UPDATE: Griffey has approved the deal.

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The White Sox have acquired Ken Griffey Jr., pending his approval.

As Ken alludes to in his piece, where does he play? The sox already have great corner outfielders, a DH, a 1B, everywhere that Griffey could conceivably play. I don't understand this. It won't affect the game tonight, Griffey still has to approve the deal, but I don't really see how this helps the White Sox.

Am I missing something?

"Clogging up the bases"

I heard John Gordon, the Twins radio announcer, use this phrase last night about the White Sox. I don't remember exactly what he said, but something about how their power hitters took too many walks and were "clogging up the bases."

Clogging up the bases?

I really don't understand what that means. Because Jim Thome or Jermaine Dye is standing on first base, no one else can get to it, it's unavailable? WTF does clogging up the bases mean? Its sounds to me like a reactionary statement first made by a member of the anti-sabermetrics crowd as a way of devaluing walks.

"You don't want people to get walks because they just clog up the base paths! How in the hell are you going to score runs with guys on base?"

It's such an incredibly stupid statement. It's so incredibly stupid I just can't believe a thinking person would utter it.

Just for fun let's take a look at the teams with the most walks.

1. Chicago Cubs (2nd in runs)
   
2. N.Y. Mets (7th in runs)
   
3. St. Louis (10th in runs)
   
4. Boston (3rd in runs)
   
5. Atlanta (17th in runs)
   

Those are some good teams, two are division leaders and only one is below .500. Two of those teams (Cubs and Boston) are the two best teams in baseball right now according to RS/RA. They don't seem to have a problem with guys "clogging up the bases," even though they're among the league leaders in walks. The very idea that a guy getting a walk is somehow a bad thing is ridiculous, the "clogging up the bases" line, doubly so.

That wasn't the only fun though, later on in the broadcast Gordon was talking about Nick Swisher, who used to play for the Oakland A's, and how in Chicago they "want you to get three good hacks at the ball. In Oakland they don't want you to swing until you have two strikes." The implication was that Oakland's way of doing things is stupid. Again, patience and walks are not good.

My response: "Dude, you watch Joe Mauer play every night. Does he ever swing at the first pitch? Do you make a concerted effort to remain ignorant?"

For a little more fun let's take a look at Nick Swisher's last season in Oakland and Nick Swisher's current season in Chicago.

Team	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	AB/HR	BB/SO
Oak	659	.262	.381	.455	24.5	.76
Chi	421	.228	.348	.405	23.4	.71

He's striking out at a slightly higher rate than last year and going slightly fewer at bats between home runs, but both of those numbers look like normal fluctuations to me. The biggest change is in his three slash numbers, BA/OBP/SLG. If Nick Swisher has adopted Chicago's "three good hacks at the ball" philosophy, as John Gordon claims, it hasn't had any positive effect on his hitting so far and if anything has caused him to fall off a cliff. But John Gordon doesn't care; he obviously has a grudge against guys who walk a lot, like Joe Mauer 16th in MLB in BB/PA and 2nd in BB/K.

Comments like those of John Gordon are why I don't like listening to Twins games on KSTP, they're always clogging up the radio with bullshit.

Castilla hurt, Everett called up

Alexi Castilla was placed on the 15-day DL today with a torn tendon in his right thumb. Adam Everett has been recalled to take his place on the roster, although thankfully, it looks like his lineup spot will be taken by Nick Punto.

Hawkins, Liriano coming?

Joe Christensen says the Twins are looking at LaTroy Hawkins to help their bullpen, which is sort of like looking for a flamethrower to put out a fire. There's a reason that the Yankee's designated him for assignment, he's not any good, not anymore. More interestingly, Anthony Swarzak has been called up to AAA and will pitch Wednesday. This could be a sign that Liriano will get called up soon, having pitched Sunday he won't be available for the Chicago series, but I would be surprised if he wasn't on the major league team by the end of the week.

"We come here to kick their butt, but they are here for a reason."

That reason, of course, is the schedule.

The quote comes from White Sox manager, and media darling, Ozzie Guillen, discussing why he likes the Twins so much. Why do you always talk about liking the Twins so much Ozzie?

"Why? Tell the people in Chicago how many playoffs the White Sox have and how many the Minnesota Twins have since I've been managing and since I've been playing," Guillen said. "I give people compliments when they need to or when they have to. ... They build good players. They play the game good. They've been playing the game like that since I was playing. And that's why I do it."

Here's a look at some of his other comments, run through a bullshit translator:

What he said: "They are supposed to be in last place this year, and look at where they are at right now."

Translated: "They aren't really that good." (BTW, how in the world are the Twins supposed to be in last place in a division also occupied by the Royals?)

What he said: "They have one of the best, to me, first basemen in baseball. And nobody says anything about this kid. If this kid was playing in New York, Boston, Chicago, the Cubs, he would be the king. He would own baseball. But he plays in Minnesota."

Translated: "If Justin Morneau played in a real city he would get the respect he deserves, but he plays in Siberia, so, you know..." (Does Ozzie forget that Morneau won the freaking MVP award in 2006?)

What I like about Ozzie is that he's a world class bullshiter. I give people compliments when they need to or when they have to… He constructs good BS. He BS's they way you're supposed to. He's been BS'ing that way since I first started BS'ing.

Series preview - Chicago

Note: The stats next to the pitchers are as follows (IP,SO/BB,WHIP,VORP)

Game 1

Monday July 28th @ 7:10pm (FSN)

K. Slowey (87.7, 64/15, 1.14, 11.2)
vs
M. Buehrle (139, 81/34, 1.26, 21.3)

The first of three left handers the Twins will face this series, Mark Buerhle is having a typical Mark Buerhle year, which is a pretty good year. Slowey hasn't had a good start since June 29th. He's walking more hitters and striking out less and the results have been predictable.

Game 2

Tuesday July 29th @ 7:10pm (FSN)

G. Perkins (90.3, 46/23, 1.42, 12.4)
vs
C. Richard (4, 7/1, 2.00, -2.4)

Clayton Richard struck out 7 while walking 1 in 4 innings in his first start. That's good. The defense behind him wasn't. While the Yankee's beat him up in his last start, Perkins has been the Twins most consistent pitcher. I would look for him to continue that trend against Chicago.

Game 3

Sunday July 30th @ 7:10pm (FSN)

L. Hernandez (135.7, 53/27, 1.60, -3.9)
vs
G. Floyd (123.7, 85/53, 1.23, 10.9)

Gavin Floyd is having his best year as a pro although his strikeout to walk ratio has regressed since last year, he walked 7 in a game at Texas recently. Livan is simply one of the worst pitchers in MLB this year. He doesn't strike anyone out and gives up a ton of hits, the only good thing you can say about him is that he doesn't issue a lot of walks, but when people are hitting .336/.363/.499 against you, it doesn't really matter if they're not getting walked.

Game 4

Sunday July 31st @ 7:10pm (FSN)

S. Baker (96, 81/18, 1.11, 22.9)
vs
J. Danks (124.7, 102/33, 1.21, 32.4)

Danks is having a pretty good second year, his walks and hits are down and his strikeouts are up. He hasn't fared well against the Twins though and in his first start after the break he had trouble with an anemic Royals offense. Scott Baker has been the Twins best starter all year, though his last start was his shortest since June 5th. He's touted as being a better second half pitcher because of a lower career ERA in the second half. This is actually incorrect, his ERA is lower mostly because his BABIP is lower which is due to luck, his SO/BB ratio is actually worse in the second half.

Grow a pair

Here's Baseball Prospectus' take on the Francisco Liriano situation. They agree with Liriano's agent that the only reason Liriano is still in the minors is to limit his service time and delay arbitration. I don't have a good read on Twins GM Bill Smith yet, his ridiculous comment about wins aside, but either way you look at it, this situation doesn't make him look good. He's either too stupid and/or stubborn to bring Liriano up, or he's trying to avoid paying the kid, which is stupid.

Liriano is supposed to pitch tonight for the Red Wings and everything coming out of the Twins seems to indicate that they'll let him. With a big 4 game Chicago series coming up and Livan scheduled to pitch in it they need to make a move, but I have a feeling that Smith would rather have Livan go against the White Sox because he's "unflappable."

"We thought getting Livan here would be a big plus because of the experience he brings. He's been through more on and off the field in his life, as a Cuban defector and all that; he's been through the World Series; and in 10 years he's never been on the disabled list."

"He's unflappable. When you watch him pitch, you never know if he's up 3-0 or down 3-0."

But either way the bases are loaded with one out.

3B Prospects

The Twins seem intent on landing a 3B, even though it's not their most glaring hole, so let's look at the most talked about candidates.

Player	PA	OBP	SLG	HR	SO	BB	OPS+	VORP
Beltre	418	.330	.432	16	62	41	107	12.7
Blalock	119	.336	.454	4	12	1	111	4.0
C. Blake	364	.364	.464	11	67	33	119	19.9

Blalock has a gigantic question mark surrounding his ability to even help out down the stretch, when healthy he is as good as the other two on the list, but he hasn't been healthy for much this season or last.

The decision for Beltre or Blake looks cut and dry based on those numbers. Blake is having a better offensive year, but when you look at their career 1st half/2nd half splits you see that Blake thrives in the first half and Beltre in the second. Beltre is also under contract for next year, which may or may not affect the Twins decision making, and is touted as being superior defensively, although the numbers don't bear that out. At one point in his career Beltre was an elite fielder, but he hasn't been that since 2006.

Year	Rate2	RAR2
2000	111	36
2001	104	25
2002	92	13
2003	99	22
2004	114	44
2005	107	32
2006	109	35
2007	98	17
2008	91	4

2004 was his biggest year at the plate as well as in the field, and the two years preceding that were his two worst full years as a pro, offensively and defensively. The difference in the defensive down turn in 2002-2003 and the one taking place now is that he's performing above his career levels offensively now. That leads me to believe that his defensive down turn is independent of a general downturn in overall performance. I don't think his defensive skills will evaporate; rather it looks like he's now just an average fielder, with numbers very similar to Blake's.

Beltre and Blalock are under club control for next year, Beltre is under contract and Blalock has a club option, so their respective teams may not feel any urgency to make a move and the Indians may not want to ship us Blake simply because we share a division. Beltre is the only one, because he's under contract for next year and he's only 29, that I would consider parting with any top-shelf prospects for.

I still maintain that 3B isn't the Twins biggest weakness, as long as Buscher doesn't regress too much he's better than replacement level talent, which is a lot more than can be said for Carlos Gomez who's been wasting AB's all year. Gomez is among the league leaders in SO's and lowest OBP. I don't doubt his talent, but he clearly needs to work on his plate discipline down in Rochester before playing every day at the major league level. The problem for the Twins is that right now they don't have anyone to replace him with, Cuddyer is still hurt and Jason Pridie's SO/BB ratio is just as bad in AAA as Gomez's is. If they can get an outfielder, my suggestion is Adam Dunn, for a similar price to what the Yankee's paid for Nady, it would be worth it.

Having said all that, the Twins best move might just be to stand pat and continue to build for 2010 and the new ballpark.

Gomez hurts back

Carlos Gomez left the game tonight in the first inning with an injured back, he was replaced in the lineup by Jason Kubel. He got hurt when he made a leaping catch of a fly ball hit by Ben Francisco and crashed into the outfield wall.

UPDATE: Gomez had an MRI done that was negative. No word yet on how long he'll be out.

1990-91 recap

The Hardball Times has a good analysis of the Twins finishing last in 1990 only to win the World Series the next year. Craig Brown takes a look at everything that had to happen for such a turnaround to take place. It's an excellent article that, for me, brought back fond memories of 1991.

Series preview - @ Cleveland

Note: The stats next to the pitchers are as follows (IP,SO/BB,WHIP,VORP)

Game 1

Friday July 25th @ 6:05pm (FSN)

L. Hernandez (127, 47/24, 1.58, -4.0)
vs
C. Lee (133, 110/20, 1.04, 45.5)

The bad news is that Livan's road splits make the numbers above look good. You might think the good news is that the last time the Twins faced Lee they won 11-2, but I don't think that was anything more than an off night on the road for Lee.

Game 2

Saturday July 26th @ 6:05pm (FSN)

S. Baker (91, 76/15, 1.08, 22.6)
vs
F. Carmona (58, 23/38, 1.58, 13.1)

Carmona returns to the Indians lineup just in time to face the Twins. It will be interesting to see how Carmona fares, having struggled early on with walks and now coming back from injury. This is the only matchup of the series with two starters worth watching.

Game 3

Sunday July 27th @ 12:05pm (WFTC29)

N. Blackburn (120, 65/18, 1.30, 12.1)
vs
J. Sowers (50, 29/22, 1.84, -12.6)

Last time we saw Nick Blackburn he was getting yanked in the 2nd inning against New York. Blackburn's been having those types of outings with more regularity and may be hitting a wall. He's still way better than Sowers.

Trade for a 3B? Why?

Take a look at the Twins lineup as it currently stands, do you see the hole?

Pos - Player	VORP	OPS+
C - J.Mauer	32.5	139
1B - J.Morneau	34.9	144
2B - A.Casilla	14.3	118
3B - B.Buscher	3.5	113
SS - N.Punto	7.4	118
OF - D.Young	8.1	100
OF - D.Span	7.4	138
OF - C.Gomez	-6.1	71
DH - J.Kubel	10.6	111

I wouldn't be looking at Hank Blalock or Casey Blake, I would be looking at Adam Dunn.

OF - A.Dunn

28.9

142

Kill the save

Jerome Holtzman, a sports writer for over thirty years and the inventor of the Save rule, died on Saturday at the age of 81. Hopefully the Save rule he created, like a distraught wife, will follow him to the grave.

The main problem with saves is that pitchers have no control over save opportunities; that's not the only problem though. It wouldn't be so bad if not for the fact that most people look first at the number of saves a guy has, than, maybe, at the rest of his stats. All the talk this year of K-Rod going after the saves record, for example, obscures the fact that he's not the best reliever in baseball. Or even the second best.

	ERA	SO	BB	IP	WHIP	SV	VORP
K-Rod	2.20	47	28	45	1.244	41	15.7
J. Nathan	1.11	46	11	40.7	0.959	27	19.3
M. Rivera	1.22	53	4	44.3	0.677	24	20.4

Of those three, the best one has the least amount of saves. K-Rod is a very good pitcher, but to talk about a guy who will likely not throw 100 innings this season as an MVP is ludicrous. The culprit here is not K-Rod but the save stat itself. The only reason K-Rod has so many saves is because he's had so many more save opportunities then the other two pitchers listed. They all have about the same amount of innings pitched, but Nathan and Rivera are better than K-Rod in every way possible except saves and even with saves it depends on how you look at it.

	SV	BLSV	PCT
K-Rod	41	3	93
J. Nathan	27	2	93
M. Rivera	24	0	100

The save has greatly distorted the value of the closer role and doesn't really serve any purpose; relievers can be looked at with the same basic pitching metrics as starters. The whole point of the save was to give the relievers something akin to a win, but the win is a BS stat too, we don't need a stat so that a subgroup of pitchers gets their own stat similar to another group of pitcher's stat, but not quite. There is also a stat called 'holds', intended to be like a save for middle relievers. The hold is yet another BS stat to give to yet another subgroup of pitchers for no good reason other than to give out more stats that don't mean anything. Do you know that Carlos Marmol of the Chicago Cubs leads MLB in holds with 22? Do you think he even knows?

I'm tilting at windmills here, but baseball should get rid of the hold and save, they're both useless and don't properly reward performance.

Liriano adds emphasis to request to get called up

Francisco Liriano threw another great game today, further making his case for an immediate call-up. If the Twins handle this situation like they handled the Gomez situation then Liriano should get called up sometime in mid-August.

One of the problems the Twins are going to face down the stretch is the inevitable regression of most of their starting pitchers who have, up till now, overachieved. You could see some early signs of it in the now wrapped up Yankees series, although it is just one series. Of course in the previous series they completely neutralized the vaunted Rangers offense, but the fact still remains that all four of these guys are having better seasons then anyone thought they would and are going to be pitching more innings then any of them have before, that usually means they will regress some in the second half.

The logical thing to do is move Livan into the pen and stick Liriano in his rotation spot. The main obstacle to this move is the fact that Twins GM Bill Smith doesn't like pitchers with low ERA's, instead he prefers pitchers who have wins.

Denard Span to bat leadoff tonight

Denard Span will bat leadoff for the Twins tonight against the Yankees. This hardly comes as a surprise. It seems like everyone who has an opinion about the Twins has expressed a desire to see this happen. The only question is why Gardenhire took as long as he did to make this move. Span's OBP is sitting at .424, 143 points above Gomez's .281. That's a .281 OBP, not batting average. I don't think Span is really a .424 OBP guy (he's only had 101 PA) and I don't think Gomez is really as bad as .281, but regardless, that's a huge difference.

I like pitchers with a 7.00 ERA, seriously

Twins general manager Bill Smith, on Livan Hernandez, who improved to 10-6 with a 5.29 earned-run average with Saturday's victory over Texas:

"I'll take the (10) wins. Who do you want, a guy who's 10-15 with a 2.80 ERA or a guy who's 16-8 with a 7.00 ERA? I'll take the 16-8."

All Star game frustration leads to a new stat

I was cheering for the All Star game to end in a tie. I don't recall ever cheering for a sporting event to end in a tie before, but it felt like the right thing to do. I'm a fan of watching slow motion train wreaks. Justin Morneau, of all people, ruined it for me in the 15th, ending the longest All Star game ever and disappointing all of us who wanted to see the spectacle of position players pitching in an All Star game. The whole thing got me to thinking and out of that thinking I managed to think up a stat, more fun than useful.

I call it the B.S. index, named after none other than Bug Selig. The stat works this way. For every World Series where home field advantage would have been different if not for the "This Time it Counts" rule you add one to the B.S. index.

It's that simple.

There are two different ways of computing however, the classic method and the winning percentage method. Since home field advantage used to switch between the two leagues every year, the classic method is computed by taking the amount of years the rule has been in effect and dividing that number by two. You then subtract that from the amount of times the league with the most home field advantages has gotten home field. Since the rule went into effect the American league has gotten home field advantage 6 times and the National league has gotten home field advantage 0 times.

So the formula for the classic method goes: bsHFA - cHFA
bsHFA = Home field advantages as awarded by the All-Star game
cHFA = Classic Home field advantage, computed by taking the number of years since the rule went into effect and dividing by 2 (Y/2). Or: 6 - ( 6 / 2 ) = 3

Using the classic method baseballs B.S. index now stands at 3.

The other method, winning percentage, awards home field advantage to the World series team with the best winning percentage. The formula for the winning percentage method goes: bsHFA - wpHFD
wpHFA = Winning percentage based HFA
Using this method the HFA is 5 (because we can't count this year yet) and the wpHFA is 4 (4 American league teams had the best record, one National league team).
So: 5 - 4 = 1

Using the winning percentage method baseballs B.S. index now stands at a modest 1.