Series preview - New York

Note: The stats next to the pitchers are as follows (IP,SO/BB,WHIP,VORP)

Game 1

Monday August 11th @ 7:10pm (FSN)

G. Pekins (102.7, 52/26. 1.47, 12.0)
vs
S. Ponson (95.7, 42/22, 1.56, 3.9)

Sidney Ponson hasn't been horrible this year. He hasn't been good either. Since arriving in New York he's walked as many as he's struck out and he's allowing more than one hit per inning.

After shutting out the Texas Rangers through six innings in his first start after the All-Star game Perkins has had three rocky starts in a row, the first coming in New York. Two of those games were late inning meltdowns, so we'll see if the hook comes quicker as a result.

Game 2

Tuesday August 12th @ 7:10pm (FSN)

N. Blackburn (140, 71/21, 1.27, 21.1)
vs
M. Mussina (140.3, 96/20, 1.20, 26.3)

Mike Mussina is having a typical Mike Mussina year, which seems to happen less frequent nowadays, but are good years when they do happen.

Nick Blackburn didn't have a great outing last time through against Seattle, but it wasn't that bad either. He's putting together a very nice first season and has even been a little unlucky in doing so; he's got a BABIP of .306 on the year.

Game 3

Wednesday August 13th @ 12:10pm (FSN)

K. Slowey (108.3, 78/16, 1.10, 19.2)
vs
D. Rasner (87, 54/28, 1.55, 0.7)

Darrell Rasner hasn't been any great shakes this year, although his last decent game came against the Twins. His .7 VORP in 87 innings gives you an idea of his contribution to the team.

Slowey can look dominating in one game and average in the next. His last outing against Kansas City, he only allowed one run, but also seven hits in 5 and 2/3 while only striking out two. He had the least bad start of the Twins pitchers in the last series against the Yankees.

Series preview - @ Kansas City

Note: The stats next to the pitchers are as follows (IP,SO/BB,WHIP,VORP)

Game 1

Friday August 8th @ 7:10pm (FSN)

K. Slowey (102.7, 76/16, 1.10, 16.3)
vs
K. Davies (63.3, 32/24, 1.56, 6.9)

At 24 years old Davies is having his best year as a pro. His BB/9 and HR/9 have gotten better, but his K/9 has regressed. His average GmSc on the year is 50 and his ERA+ is 100, meaning he's almost exactly a league average pitcher.

Slowey has been inconsistent as of late, recording game scores of 89, 46, 18, 43, 79, and 47 in his last six starts. In his last start he struck out seven and didn't walk any, but gave up five runs on six hits including two HR.

Game 2

Saturday August 9th @ 7:10pm (FSN)

F. Liriano (16.3, 12/16, 2.08, -2.7)
vs
Z. Greinke (146.7, 131/42, 1.31, 27.1)

Zach Greinke is putting up almost exactly the same numbers this year as last, when he split time between the starting rotation and the bullpen and they're pretty good numbers.

In Liriano's first start back in the majors, against Cleveland, he went six scoreless innings, giving up three hits and three walks with five strikeouts. It was not a dominating performance, he often fell behind batters, but it was six innings of zero's in his first big league start since April, so you can't nitpick too much.

Game 3

Sunday August 10th @ 12:10pm (WFTC29)

S. Baker (107.3, 93/23, 1.17, 20.8)
vs
G. Meche (146.7, 115/51, 1.31, 22.6)

With Greinke and Meche the Royals have two quality pitchers they can throw at you back to back, which, for the Royals, is something. Meche has been on fire since the All-Star break, recording his lowest GmSc, a 60, in his last outing against Boston. A 60 GmSc is still pretty good.

Baker on the other hand has been scuffling and his last outing against Seattle was his worst of the year, he gave up six runs in five and a third. The Royals are the kind of team it's easy to bounce back against.

Series preview - @ Seattle

Note: The stats next to the pitchers are as follows (IP,SO/BB,WHIP,VORP)

Game 1

Monday August 4th @ 9:10pm (FSN)

G. Perkins (96.3, 50/25, 1.43, 12.6)
vs
M. Batista (91, 57/59, 1.89, -19.7)

Miguel Batista has been really awful this year coming out of the bullpen, now he's in the starting rotation. This kind of inspired roster manipulation exemplifies the 2008 Seattle Mariners and has helped make them, against all expectations, one of the worst teams in MLB. To be fair, Batista has been good since moving into the rotation, but it's only been two starts so far.

Perkins, on the other hand, has gotten banged around a little in his last two starts. He's thrown almost 120 innings combined (major and minor) this year, the most he threw in a minor league year was 134 back in 2005. He could be hitting a wall, or he could have just had two not-so-good starts back-to-back, either way he shouldn't have too much trouble with an anemic Mariners offense.

Game 2

Tuesday August 5th @ 9:10pm (FSN)

S. Baker (102, 89/21, 1.12, 23.1)
vs
R.A. Dickey (81.7, 45/36, 1.51, 9.4)

Dickey is a knuckleballer and as such you never really know if he's going to be 'on' or not. His last start was good, the two before that, not so much. Regardless, even when he has a good game it's not that good, he doesn't strike out many and walks more than he should.

Baker's last two games haven't been great, but they haven't been bad either, he's only really had one bad start all year. But he walked three batters in each of the last two games, before that the most he'd walked in a game all year was two. On the surface July looks like it was a good month for Baker, but he posted a .238 BABIP, which is bound to regress.

Game 3

Wednesday August 6th @ 3:40pm (FSN)

N. Blackburn (134, 70/20, 1.26, 19.6)
vs
J. Washburn (122.7, 69/38, 1.48, 6.2)

The subject of all sorts of trade rumors leading up to the deadline, Jarrod Washburn ended up staying put. He's having worse of a year than what has become a pretty typical Jarrod Washburn year, which is average. His last great year was his contract year, a phenomenon the Mariners have some experience with.

Nick Blackburn had two almost identical starts in a row against Jeremy Sowers of the Indians, both times going seven innings allowing one run and issuing one walk. Five out of his last six starts have been quality starts; the other was against the Yankees. Like Baker though his BABIP dropped off a cliff in July, lower than Bakers at .228.

Series preview - Cleveland

Note: The stats next to the pitchers are as follows (IP,SO/BB,WHIP,VORP)

Game 1

Friday August 1st @ 7:10pm (FSN)

N. Blackburn (127, 68/19, 1.30, 16.3)
vs
J. Sowers (58.3, 34/23, 1.64, -9.4)

A rematch of Sunday's contest that saw Sowers throw his best game of the year, his only start with a GmSc above 50 in fact. I don't imagine that will continue.

Blackburn had a strong outing in that game as well, recovering nicely from his debacle at Yankee stadium. July was a good month for Blackburn, his three slash numbers were down to .217/.240/.304, while his K/BB ratio held steady.

Looking closer at the numbers we see that his improvement was largely due to a BABIP of .331 from April -June that went down to .227 in July. He was unlucky early in the year, but got lucky in July, which made it look like he was throwing better than he was, his K/BB ratio didn't change after all. Overall his BABIP is .306 which is a little above league average but not out of line.

Game 2

Saturday August 2nd @ 6:10pm (FSN)

K. Slowey(96.7, 69/16, 1.10, 17.2)
vs
P. Byrd (115, 53/22, 1.3, 3.3)

Paul Byrd had a good outing his last time on the mound, holding the Tigers to four hits and no runs over 7 2/3 innings, but he walked three. His K/BB ratio is 2.41 for the year, but just 1.84 over the last five games. He's striking people out at roughly the same rate; he's just giving up more walks than he had been.

Slowey had a complete game shutout in his last outing, the first game of the Chicago series, and his second shutout in his last five starts. Even with that July was a tough month for Slowey though, his walks and hits allowed per inning were up while his K's per inning were down. More than likely it was a rough patch and he'll bounce back in August.

Game 3

Sunday August 3rd @ 1:10pm (WFTC29)

F. Liriano (10, 7/13, 2.71, -6.5)
vs
M. Ginter (15, 9/1, 1.40, -2.0)

Matt Ginter has been all over the last five years. A first round pick for the White Sox in 1999, he never really caught on with them and in 2004 was traded to the Mets. He signed with Detroit in 2005 and didn't pitch in the majors again until this year. He's only thrown 15 innings, but hasn't been terrible, hovering right around replacement level.

Liriano was terrible in three starts in April, but has been lights out for the last month down in AAA. Over his last six starts he's sporting an 8.5 K/BB ratio and has allowed only five runs in 41 innings, four of those coming in one game. He's ready to go and gets to make his return on Sunday in front of a home crowd who'll be happy to see him.

Series preview - Chicago

Note: The stats next to the pitchers are as follows (IP,SO/BB,WHIP,VORP)

Game 1

Monday July 28th @ 7:10pm (FSN)

K. Slowey (87.7, 64/15, 1.14, 11.2)
vs
M. Buehrle (139, 81/34, 1.26, 21.3)

The first of three left handers the Twins will face this series, Mark Buerhle is having a typical Mark Buerhle year, which is a pretty good year. Slowey hasn't had a good start since June 29th. He's walking more hitters and striking out less and the results have been predictable.

Game 2

Tuesday July 29th @ 7:10pm (FSN)

G. Perkins (90.3, 46/23, 1.42, 12.4)
vs
C. Richard (4, 7/1, 2.00, -2.4)

Clayton Richard struck out 7 while walking 1 in 4 innings in his first start. That's good. The defense behind him wasn't. While the Yankee's beat him up in his last start, Perkins has been the Twins most consistent pitcher. I would look for him to continue that trend against Chicago.

Game 3

Sunday July 30th @ 7:10pm (FSN)

L. Hernandez (135.7, 53/27, 1.60, -3.9)
vs
G. Floyd (123.7, 85/53, 1.23, 10.9)

Gavin Floyd is having his best year as a pro although his strikeout to walk ratio has regressed since last year, he walked 7 in a game at Texas recently. Livan is simply one of the worst pitchers in MLB this year. He doesn't strike anyone out and gives up a ton of hits, the only good thing you can say about him is that he doesn't issue a lot of walks, but when people are hitting .336/.363/.499 against you, it doesn't really matter if they're not getting walked.

Game 4

Sunday July 31st @ 7:10pm (FSN)

S. Baker (96, 81/18, 1.11, 22.9)
vs
J. Danks (124.7, 102/33, 1.21, 32.4)

Danks is having a pretty good second year, his walks and hits are down and his strikeouts are up. He hasn't fared well against the Twins though and in his first start after the break he had trouble with an anemic Royals offense. Scott Baker has been the Twins best starter all year, though his last start was his shortest since June 5th. He's touted as being a better second half pitcher because of a lower career ERA in the second half. This is actually incorrect, his ERA is lower mostly because his BABIP is lower which is due to luck, his SO/BB ratio is actually worse in the second half.

Series preview - @ Cleveland

Note: The stats next to the pitchers are as follows (IP,SO/BB,WHIP,VORP)

Game 1

Friday July 25th @ 6:05pm (FSN)

L. Hernandez (127, 47/24, 1.58, -4.0)
vs
C. Lee (133, 110/20, 1.04, 45.5)

The bad news is that Livan's road splits make the numbers above look good. You might think the good news is that the last time the Twins faced Lee they won 11-2, but I don't think that was anything more than an off night on the road for Lee.

Game 2

Saturday July 26th @ 6:05pm (FSN)

S. Baker (91, 76/15, 1.08, 22.6)
vs
F. Carmona (58, 23/38, 1.58, 13.1)

Carmona returns to the Indians lineup just in time to face the Twins. It will be interesting to see how Carmona fares, having struggled early on with walks and now coming back from injury. This is the only matchup of the series with two starters worth watching.

Game 3

Sunday July 27th @ 12:05pm (WFTC29)

N. Blackburn (120, 65/18, 1.30, 12.1)
vs
J. Sowers (50, 29/22, 1.84, -12.6)

Last time we saw Nick Blackburn he was getting yanked in the 2nd inning against New York. Blackburn's been having those types of outings with more regularity and may be hitting a wall. He's still way better than Sowers.